What Nvidia's 2022 run says about Wednesday

KEY TAKES

• Energy was the chase last week (XLE +4.9%, Exxon +5.9% for the week) while QQQ lost 5.5%.
• Gasoline was more than half of September's CPI jump (SeekingAlpha, Oct 14), so oil and the rate worry are the same story.
• A trader who works the after-hours market explains the two-minute routine he runs before bed (From Millionaire Publishing)

THE CHASE

Last week money walked out of chips and long-dated AI growth and into energy. Crude topped $100. XLE closed Friday at $68.24, up 4.86% from $65.08. Over that same week QQQ lost 5.52% and the chip fund (SMH) lost 10.5%. IWM lost 3.05%. DIA was the holdout, up 0.6%.

XLE rose four of five sessions. The only down day was Thursday, Oct 15, off 1.58% to $66.56. Friday was the heaviest volume of the week, 37.5 million shares, against 19.9 million to 31.4 million from Monday through Thursday. The fund gained 2.52% and closed five cents under the day's high of $68.29. It had already set a new 52-week high on Wednesday, Oct 14 (QuoteMedia, 9:45 AM ET). WTI crude rose 3.6% Friday to $101.46 (MT Newswires, Oct 16).

The people exposed bought energy late in the week, near Friday's high, in a fund that had already risen four of five days. A buyer at that price needs the crude bid to hold into Monday. Higher crude also feeds the rate worry. Stock futures reopen at 6:00 PM ET Sunday, but the real test is Monday's cash open at 9:30 AM ET.

Wrong if: WTI slips back under $100 and XLE gives back Friday's 2.5% gain early in the week, while chips (SMH) bounce.

HEADLINE OF THE WEEK

“Crude oil rises as Iran ramps up attacks on shipping”

SeekingAlpha | Wed Oct 14, 2026, 10:45 AM ET

Same morning, XLE and Exxon hit new 52-week highs. A supply scare plus hot inflation pushed money toward companies that earn more when crude rises now, rather than companies whose profits arrive years out. That is why the energy fund finished the week higher while QQQ lost 5.52%.

ONE TO WATCH MONDAY

Exxon Mobil (XOM) at the Monday, Oct 19 cash open, 9:30 AM ET. It is the biggest name in the energy chase. Friday's close was $178.98, up 5.94% for the week from $168.94, after a new 52-week high Wednesday (QuoteMedia, 12:13 PM ET) and a Zacks upgrade to Buy the same day. The tell is Thursday's close of $174.68. Holding above that price in Monday's first hour says the oil bid survived the weekend. Losing it says the chase was late.

WEEK AHEAD

Schlumberger (SLB) reports Friday, Oct 23 (CNBC week-ahead calendar), the first big oil-services report since crude crossed $100. Tesla reports Wednesday, Oct 21, after the close (CNBC).

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Signal over noise. A Sunday read of Friday's close. Next cash session Monday Oct 19.