🚜 Washington just went after Caterpillar

KEY TAKES

• The 10-year auction cleared at 5.300% vs about 4.83% last time. The 10-year touched 5.37%, highest since 2002.
• CAT, CNH, AGCO about -6% on an FTC and USDA equipment inquiry. Industrials led down, healthcare led up.
• A hedge fund trader on the one ticker he says gets the money after the SpaceX IPO (From Brownstone Research)
• PENG is the real gainer in the top five. FFR is day-old news. MTEN disclosed no price and faded.
• $22B 30-year auction Thursday Oct 8. TLT is the watch.

This is a mid-afternoon read, not the official close. Around 1:05 p.m. CT: SPY 777.12 (-0.25%), QQQ 756.80 (-0.38%), DIA 511.27 (-0.64%), IWM 278.00 (-1.19%). Indexes slipped off Tuesday's records as the 10-year auction cleared at 5.300% versus about 4.83% last time and the 10-year touched 5.37%, highest since 2002. Industrials and materials led down, healthcare led up. Fed minutes landed at 2 p.m. ET, right at this snapshot, and are not read into these numbers. NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations moved to 3.9% from 3.6%.

TODAY'S TOP 5 GAINERS

1 · FFR +38.5% - $1.91 | Nasdaq - Riding Oct 5 robotics shipments and an Oct 2 $200M EAI Robotics proposal. Day-old news. Thin.

2 · MTEN +24.1% - $1.19 | Nasdaq CM - Agreed to acquire HK Phoenix Gateway Alliance, no price disclosed (6-K Oct 6). Faded from $1.79. Thin.

3 · JVA +17.3% - $4.68 | Nasdaq - Board approved up to $2.5M share repurchase, about 9% of a $27M company.

4 · AVBP +14.2% - $17.24 | Nasdaq - Bounce through four target cuts: Clear Street $22 from $47, Citi $20 from $40, Guggenheim $18 from $45, BTIG $29 from $42. No company wire.

5 · PENG +11.8% - $71.80 | Nasdaq - Q4 beat overnight and raised fiscal 2027 guidance. Volume over 15.5M vs about 2.7M average. The real one, about $3.7B cap.

Noise: SXTC (+562%, no wire), BIYA, PFAI (vote results only), and BSP (no wire).

THE SIGNAL

Ten-year money got repriced at auction: 5.300% today versus about 4.83% at the last one. Every company that borrows long, and every stock valued on far-off earnings, now has to clear a higher bar. Who's hurt: small caps (IWM -1.19%, worst of the four) and capital-heavy industrials, where the FTC/USDA inquiry piled on (CAT, CNH, AGCO about -6%). Healthcare and defensives got the bid. STZ reclaimed Tuesday's close, so this morning's call on it was wrong. Exposed next session: IWM small caps and long-duration growth into Thursday's $22B 30-year auction, CAT/CNH/AGCO/DE holders as the inquiry asks for public comment, and TLT holders.

Wrong if: the 10-year falls back under 5.20% after the minutes and IWM closes Thursday green.

HEADLINE OF THE DAY

“Caterpillar, Agriculture Machinery Stocks Fall on FTC, USDA Equipment Inquiry”

MT Newswire via QuoteMedia | Oct 7, 2026 11:41 ET

Parts and service is where these makers earn after the sale. A federal look at repair access puts that aftermarket margin on the table, and the market priced it in one morning: CAT about -6%, CNH -5.8%, AGCO -6.2%, Deere -3.3%.

ONE TO WATCH

TLT · $22B 30-year Treasury auction Thursday Oct 8. The 30-year touched 5.73% today, highest since 2002. Does Thursday's auction clear below that, or do long-bond buyers ask for more? Watch the 30-year versus 5.73%, and TLT around $77.10.

P.S. Elon Musk is quietly backing a new AI startup. One former tech executive shows a way to claim a stake for under $50. (Ad)

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