The trader who admits he loses 1 trade in 4

MARKET SIGNAL REPORT
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FRI OCT 30 RECAP · OFFICIAL CLOSE · SPY −1.77% QQQ −3.47% DIA −1.07% IWM −1.65%

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KEY TAKES

Intel fell 28.58% to $65.76. It beat the quarter but guided Q4 to $15B to $16B and 25 cents vs $17.1B and 43 cents expected, and the chips followed (AMD -10.88%, Broadcom -5.48%, Nvidia -4.22%).
The Nasdaq closed at a three-month low, more than 8% under its Oct 6 closing high (Reuters), while Lilly (+3.19%) and Exxon (+2.16%) closed green.
Jeff Brown on the little-known company with 150 patents tied to Musk's $119 billion Terafab chip plant (details before Nov 11) (From Brownstone Research)

THE CLOSE

SPY closed 755.72 (-1.77%), QQQ 690.49 (-3.47%), DIA 517.13 (-1.07%), IWM 279.33 (-1.65%). Intel's guide set the tone. Then came Reddit -29.22% and Twilio -15.24% after their reports. Coinbase -10.62% on reports of a Binance hack. Underneath, money moved to defensives: staples, utilities and healthcare rose (Barron's), and TLT added 0.43%. Gold got no bid (GLD -3.47%).

Did the 3 PM read hold? Yes, through the close. QQQ finished -3.47% and AMD -10.88%, so Tuesday's AMD report is the real test.

AFTER THE BELL

XOM closed +2.16% at $187.25 after a Q3 beat: adjusted EPS $4.23 vs $4.08 expected, revenue $113.2B vs $103.1B, plus a $20B buyback plan for 2027 (CNBC, Reuters).

CVX closed +1.75% after adjusted EPS of $5.28 vs $4.89 expected (CNBC).

GLD closed -3.47%. Futures settled $3,885.70, the lowest since October 2025 (Barron's).

MONDAY'S SETUP

Mon 10:00 AM ET. ISM manufacturing for October, consensus 54.7 vs 54.5 in September

Mon after the close. Apple and Palantir report, calls at 5:00 PM ET

Tue. Midterm Election Day; JOLTS job openings at 10:00 AM ET; AMD reports after the close

Fri 8:30 AM ET. October jobs report, consensus about 55,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.2%

ONE TO WATCH MONDAY

PLTR (Palantir) closed $184.11 (-6.27%), reports Monday after the close, call 5:00 PM ET. Consensus EPS is $0.33 vs $0.18 a year ago, and it is the first big AI report since Intel showed what a soft guide costs. Wrong if Palantir beats and raises and the stock still falls Tuesday; that would mean the market is selling AI on spending fears, not on the numbers.

SHH. THIS IS A CLUB.

You get the recap because you open and click. Go quiet and your chair goes to someone who reads. Have a good weekend. See you Monday morning.

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Signal over noise. Evening recap of Friday's official close. Next session is Monday, Nov. 2.

The trader who admits he loses 1 trade in 4

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