MARKET SIGNAL REPORT
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| FRI OCT 30 CLOSE · AS OF 1:23 PM ET · SPY -1.80% QQQ -3.62% DIA -0.97% IWM -1.99% |
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KEY TAKES
- Intel is -29.8% after guiding Q4 to $15B-$16B in sales and 25 cents a share, under the $17.1B and 43 cents expected, even after a Q3 beat.
- Chips are going down with it: AMD -11.7%, Broadcom -6.2%, Nvidia -4.8%, and QQQ -3.62% on the last trading day of October.
- One trader waits for the closing bell, then watches for a single after-hours signal (From Millionaire Publishing)
- Gold is not working as a hedge today. GLD is -3.2% after a new 52-week low, while Exxon +2.0% and Lilly +3.4% hold up.
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Intel set the tone before the open, and the selling has spread. The chipmaker beat on Q3 (52 cents a share against 40 expected, $16.51B in revenue) but guided Q4 to $15B-$16B and 25 cents, well under the $17.1B and 43 cents the Street wanted. It also flagged a $300M revenue hit from an Israel plant shutdown (MT Newswires). INTC is -29.8% at $64.64 on more than 290M shares, and Freedom Broker cut it to Hold at 12:23 PM ET after a round of target cuts before the bell. As of 1:23 PM ET, SPY is -1.80%, QQQ -3.62%, DIA -0.97% and IWM -1.99%.
It is not only chips. Reddit is -29.8% at $91.00 and Twilio -17.4% after quarters that did not clear the bar, and Coinbase is -13.4% as reports of a Binance hack circulate. Amazon is holding up better than its premarket print: -2.1% at $238.63 after its EPS and revenue miss. Lilly, Exxon and a flat TLT show where the money is hiding.
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TODAY'S TOP 5 GAINERS
1 · GDYN +34.3% · $12.75. Grid Dynamics reported Q3 Thursday, and JPMorgan raised its target to $11 from $8 (The Fly, 9:25 AM ET). The stock is already past that target, at a new 52-week high.
2 · ASUR +28.9% · $9.32. Asure beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates (Zacks), and Stephens lifted its target to $13 from $11. A payroll-software name getting paid for a clean beat.
3 · RMNI +24.6% · $4.97. Rimini Street's Q3 revenue of $112.1M beat by $1.28M, while GAAP EPS of 7 cents missed by a penny (Seeking Alpha). Buyers took the sales line.
4 · ACCO +23.2% · $5.37. ACCO earned 28 cents a share adjusted, 9 cents above estimates, on $380M of revenue that missed by $3.7M (Seeking Alpha). New 52-week high.
5 · OSPN +22.9% · $24.77. OneSpan beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates (Zacks) and has held its premarket jump into the afternoon, at a 52-week high.
Left off: ONEG +74% and TNMG +31% have no dated catalyst in the feed, and FMC +23% comes with a Q3 earnings miss and law-firm investigation notices. Treat them as noise. |
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THE SIGNAL
Guidance is the number that matters this week. Intel beat Q3 and lost almost a third of its value on the Q4 outlook, a day after Alphabet sold off on profit while revenue grew. Traders are selling the whole chip group off one company's guide, so the bar for every chip report left this season just went up. Next up is AMD on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Wrong if: AMD guides above estimates on Nov. 3 and chip stocks recover today's losses by midweek. That would make this an Intel problem, not a verdict on the chip sector.
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HEADLINE OF THE DAY
“Update: US Equity Indexes Slide as Mega-Cap Chipmakers Sink Following Intel's Results”
MT Newswires | Oct 30, 12:38 PM ET
One company's guide is moving the whole group. When the biggest chipmakers fall together on a single report, it becomes a positioning story, and those can run further than the news justifies.
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ONE TO WATCH
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) reports Q3 on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Last $500.14, -11.7% as of 1:23 PM ET, sold with Intel before saying a word. Watch the data-center guide: a strong number makes today look like an overreaction, a soft one says the chip trade is cracking.
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HANDPICKED FOR YOU
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SHH. THIS IS A CLUB.
You get the close because you open and click. Go quiet and we give your chair away.
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Market Signal Report
powered by StocksToTrade
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Signal over noise. Late-session read, not the official close. Full recap after the bell.
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