Tesla says its new robot cleared three hurdles

KEY TAKES

• AMD beat and guided the fourth quarter to about $17 billion against $16.2 billion expected. The stock closed +3.65% at $483.90 and traded about 7% higher after hours (CNBC).
• Chips carried the Nasdaq while Apple fell 1.90% on a memory-cost warning. QQQ finished +0.62% and DIA -0.44%, with consumer staples the weakest sector at -1.76% (Reuters).
• Grantham calls it the biggest bubble in American history and Dalio agrees. MarketWise on the side of the AI story few people are talking about (From MarketWise)

THE CLOSE

SPY closed 754.35 (+0.30%), QQQ 685.28 (+0.62%), DIA 517.06 (-0.44%), IWM 279.79 (+0.23%). Nvidia rose 2.29% after four down sessions and SMH gained 2.01%. Bonds sold off: the 10-year yield rose to 4.951%, its biggest one-day gain since Sept. 28 (MarketWatch), and TLT lost 0.76%. GLD slipped 0.66%.

Did the 3 PM read hold? Yes, so far. Buyers stayed in chips through the close, and AMD's guide gave them a reason after the bell. AMD did give back part of its +5.5% midday gain before the report, so Wednesday's open is the real test.

AFTER THE BELL

AMD Q3 revenue $13.38B vs $13.09B expected, adjusted EPS $2.09 vs $1.95 (LSEG via CNBC). Data center sales hit a record $8.5B, up 97% from a year ago. The Q4 guide of about $17B, plus or minus 3%, implies 66% growth (AMD).

SMCI Super Micro posted Q1 revenue of $19.95B against $17.53B expected and adjusted EPS of $1.81, $0.58 above estimates. It now sees fiscal 2027 sales of $72B to $82B vs $73.03B expected (MT Newswires). Shares were up about 3% after hours (The Fly).

ANET Arista earned $1.20 adjusted on $3.66B of revenue, both above estimates, and guided Q4 EPS to $1.26 to $1.30 vs $1.15 expected (MT Newswires). Amgen also beat, while Duolingo missed on EPS but guided Q4 revenue above consensus (The Fly).

TOMORROW'S SETUP

Overnight. Midterm results come in. Polls favor Democrats to take the House, and the Senate is a toss-up (Reuters).

8:15 AM ET. ADP private payrolls for October, forecast 67K, then the September trade balance at 8:30.

Before the open. Uber, CVS and McDonald's report.

10:00 AM ET. ISM services for October, forecast 54.8. Treasury's quarterly refunding plan is also due Wednesday.

After the close. Qualcomm reports (call 4:45 PM ET), and so does Arm.

ONE TO WATCH TOMORROW

QCOM (Qualcomm) closed $164.43 (+1.45%) and reports after Wednesday's close, with the call at 4:45 PM ET. AMD just showed how much AI data center demand is worth. Qualcomm still gets most of its sales from phones, so the guide on its non-phone business is what to read. Wrong if handsets stay soft and the stock lags a chip group that gained 2% today; then the rally is only about data center names.

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Signal over noise. Evening recap of Tuesday's official close. Next session is Wednesday, Nov. 4.