Retirees are chasing the wrong AI stocks

MARKET SIGNAL REPORT
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THU OCT 29 RECAP · OFFICIAL CLOSE · SPY −0.38% QQQ −1.42% DIA −0.37% IWM +0.97%

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KEY TAKES

Alphabet fell 12.64% to $283.82, its worst day ever (the old record was -11.63% in March 2020), erasing about $500 billion after cash flow came in $9.07B negative once capital spending was paid (CNBC).
After the bell Amazon and Intel slid: Amazon missed on EPS and revenue and guided Q4 sales below the midpoint expected; Intel was about -16% on a weak Q4 guide and an Israel fab blast.
Jeff Brown on a Musk-backed AI startup you can take a pre-IPO stake in for about $50 (From Brownstone Research)

THE CLOSE

SPY closed 769.36 (-0.38%), QQQ 715.34 (-1.42%), DIA 522.73 (-0.37%), IWM 284.01 (+0.97%). The S&P 500 fell 0.3% for its first loss in four days, the Nasdaq composite lost 1.4% and the Dow gave up 132 points, even though the wide majority of stocks rose (AP). Alphabet -12.64%, Caterpillar -9.25% after a sales miss, Amazon -4.25% before its report. Underneath, money moved elsewhere: small caps up, Lilly +6.63% after reporting before the open, Meta +1.96%, TLT +0.62%.

Did the 3 PM read hold? So far, yes. At 3 PM we said the market was paying for proof and selling promises, and Amazon had to show it. AWS barely edged past estimates, profit and the Q4 guide came up short, and the stock dropped after hours. The call breaks only if the Nasdaq-100 wins back today's loss by Friday's open.

AFTER THE BELL

AMZN lower after hours. EPS $1.89 vs $1.97, revenue $201.9B vs $202.25B, AWS $45.9B vs $45.68B, Q4 sales guide $240B to $247B vs $244.5B (Yahoo Finance).

INTC about -16% after hours ($77.44 vs $92.07 close, MarketBeat). Q4 guide $15B to $16B and 25 cents missed $17.1B and 43 cents. An Israel fab blast costs about $600M of revenue (CNBC, Reuters).

COIN about flat after hours on a Q3 EPS beat of $2.51 (Investing.com).

TOMORROW'S SETUP

Fri Oct 30, overnight. China official manufacturing and services PMIs for October.

6:30 AM ET. ExxonMobil reports (consensus EPS about $4.00 vs $1.88 a year ago); Chevron, AbbVie, AstraZeneca and Regeneron also report before the open.

8:30 AM ET. Q3 Employment Cost Index, the wage number the Fed watches.

9:45 AM ET. Chicago PMI for October.

ONE TO WATCH TOMORROW

XOM (ExxonMobil) closed $183.29 (+0.70%), reports at 6:30 AM ET Friday. The stock is up 51.9% this year and sits 1.2% under its 52-week high (Benzinga). Today the market sold big tech for spending without the payoff, so Exxon has to show production and cash returns that justify the run. Wrong if Exxon misses on production and cash returns and the stock still rises Friday; that would mean energy trades on momentum, not proof.

SHH. THIS IS A CLUB.

You get the recap because you open and click. Go quiet and your chair goes to someone who reads. See you tomorrow morning.

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Signal over noise. Evening recap of Thursday's official close. Next session is Friday, Oct. 30.

Retirees are chasing the wrong AI stocks

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