MARKET SIGNAL REPORT
POWERED BY STOCKSTOTRADE |
| THU OCT 29 CLOSE · AS OF 1:25 PM ET · SPY -0.53% QQQ -1.56% DIA -0.55% IWM +0.93% |
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KEY TAKES
- Alphabet is -12.7% after a Q3 profit miss ($2.12 a share vs $3.02 expected, FactSet), and it is pulling QQQ down 1.56%.
- Inflation stayed sticky. September PCE ran 3.6% year over year and core 3.1%, while Q3 GDP grew 3.4% vs 3.2% expected (MT Newswires).
- Scary headlines are when the small stocks one trader follows move fastest; see his setup (From Millionaire Publishing)
- Small caps are holding up: IWM +0.93% while SPY slips. Buyouts and beat-and-raise quarters fill the gainers list.
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Big tech is doing the damage into the final hour. Alphabet missed on Q3 profit and revenue late Wednesday, and the stock is -12.7% at $283.55. Caterpillar beat on EPS but missed on sales and guided to "moderate sales growth" for Q4 (MT Newswires); CAT is -8.2%. Amazon, -3.4%, reports after the bell. As of 1:25 PM ET, SPY is -0.53%, QQQ -1.56% and DIA -0.55%.
The macro data did not help. Core PCE rose 0.3% in September and the yearly rate ticked up to 3.1% from 3.0%, one day after the Fed held with futures leaning toward a December hike. GDP grew 3.4% in Q3, so growth is fine; prices are the problem. Under the surface it looks like rotation more than panic: IWM +0.93%, Lilly +6.3%, Meta +2.95%, Apple +1.75%, and TLT +0.38%.
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TODAY'S TOP 5 GAINERS
1 · ADT +33.9% · $9.93. Thrive Holdings agreed to buy ADT for $10 a share in cash, a $15.3B enterprise value and a 45.6% premium to the Oct. 27 price (MT Newswires 9:34 AM ET). Deal stock now, 7 cents under the offer, with completion targeted for Q1 2027.
2 · GKOS +31.9% · $239.30. Glaukos posted a Q3 beat and raised guidance again; H.C. Wainwright lifted its target to $248 from $195 (The Fly 9:56 AM ET). iDose growth is the story, reimbursement the risk. New 52-week high.
3 · TDOC +28.4% · $8.84. Teladoc Q3 revenue came in at $605.1M vs $585.6M expected, with a loss of 15 cents a share vs 23 cents expected (Zacks). BofA raised its target to $11.50. A beat on a name nobody wanted.
4 · CROX +26.1% · $150.92. Crocs earned $3.69 a share vs $3.31 expected and raised its 2026 EPS guide to $14.45 to $14.65 from $13.70 to $14.00 (MT Newswires). The cleanest beat-and-raise on the board.
5 · BHC +25.8% · $8.70. Bausch Health Q3 adjusted EPS was $1.77 vs $1.27 expected, on revenue of $2.94B vs $2.76B, and it lifted 2026 revenue guidance (MT Newswires). Over 14M shares traded.
Left off: PCLA +80% and NCPL +63% are bigger percentages with no dated catalyst in the feed. Treat them as noise. |
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THE SIGNAL
The market is paying for proof and selling promises. Alphabet grew revenue to $127.6B and still dropped 12.7%, because profit missed by almost a dollar a share while it keeps spending on AI. Crocs, Glaukos and Teladoc beat, raised and got paid. Exposed next: Amazon after the bell, which has to show cloud growth that justifies its spending with core PCE back at 3.1%.
Wrong if: Amazon beats on cloud and the Nasdaq-100 recovers its losses by Friday's open. That would make today an Alphabet problem, not a verdict on AI spending.
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HEADLINE OF THE DAY
“Top Midday Stories: Alphabet Q3 EPS, Revenue Miss Targets; Caterpillar Shares Fall After Q3 Revenue Miss, Tepid Guidance”
MT Newswires | Oct 29, 12:24 PM ET
Two bellwethers missed on the line investors watch most: Alphabet on profit, Caterpillar on sales. Both grew from a year ago and both are getting sold.
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ONE TO WATCH
AMZN (Amazon) reports Q3 after today's bell. Last $246.01, -3.37% as of 1:25 PM ET. Alphabet just showed that strong cloud revenue is not enough when profit and cash flow slip, so AWS growth against Amazon's spending is the number. A miss there turns big tech's bad day into a bad week.
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Market Signal Report
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Signal over noise. Late-session read, not the official close. Full recap after the bell.
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