Everyone piled into SpaceX. He's watching the aftermath

MARKET SIGNAL REPORT
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SUN OCT 25 · THE WEEK AHEAD Last week: SPY −0.43% · QQQ −0.76% · DIA +0.44% · IWM +1.96%

TOGETHER WITH MILLIONAIRE PUBLISHING · (Ad)
Retail traders piled into SpaceX when it went public.
Tim Bohen says the bigger chance comes after.
He has traded for more than 20 years and says that with a listing this size, the real openings tend to show up in the aftermath, not in the ticker everyone already owns. His short video walks through what he is watching now.

Watch the Video

KEY TAKES

Last week the big indexes barely moved, SPY −0.43% and QQQ −0.76%, while small caps gained 1.96% and chips (SOXX) lost 3.08%. AI spending worries were already sitting on the tape.
The Fed decision, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and the first Q3 GDP estimate all land inside about 27 hours, from 2:00 PM ET Wednesday to Thursday evening.
The rigs that built the shale boom are now drilling for underground heat instead (From Behind the Markets)

THE WEEK AHEAD

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening carries most of the week's weight.

Mon Oct 26 Verizon (VZ) before the open, call 8:30 AM ET. Nucor, Welltower and Public Storage report. 2-year Treasury note auction 1:00 PM ET. Cadence (CDNS) after the close.

Tue Oct 27 Housing starts 8:30 AM ET, new home sales 10:00 AM ET. Coca-Cola before the open, Visa after the close. Boeing and UPS report. Fed meeting begins.

Wed Oct 28 Fed decision 2:00 PM ET, Chair Warsh press conference 2:30 PM ET. Alphabet (call 4:30 PM ET) and Microsoft (call 5:30 PM ET) after the close.

Thu Oct 29 Q3 GDP advance estimate and September PCE inflation 8:30 AM ET. Eli Lilly, Mastercard and Caterpillar before the open. Amazon (call 5:00 PM ET) and Intel after the close.

Fri Oct 30 Employment cost index 8:30 AM ET. Exxon Mobil and Chevron before the open.

The fed funds target range is 3.75%-4.00% after September's 25 bp hike, the first since July 2023. CME FedWatch put hold odds near 90% on Oct 22. No dot plot or projections at this meeting, so the statement and press conference carry the December signal.

ONE TO WATCH AT MONDAY'S OPEN

Verizon (VZ) reports before Monday's open, call 8:30 AM ET. Last week $44.79 to $44.66 (−0.29%). Friday's volume ran about double its earlier-week range. Consensus EPS $1.27 versus $1.21 a year ago. The tell is postpaid phone net adds versus the full-year guide. Q2 added 184,000, and Verizon guided full-year adds to the upper half of 750,000 to 1,000,000. A Q3 number that keeps that guide in reach, plus a reaffirmed outlook, is the bar. Soft adds with a quiet outlook are the risk.

SHH. THIS IS A CLUB.

You hold this chair by reading. Miss enough letters and it moves. See you Monday.

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Signal over noise. Sunday evening look at the week of Oct 26 to Oct 30. Next session is Monday.

Everyone piled into SpaceX. He's watching the aftermath

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