Carriers broke. Soft SPY lied.

KEY TAKES

• Week through Fri close: SPY +1.16%, QQQ +0.23%, DIA +0.98%, IWM −0.92%. Soft green hid a sector wipeout.
• What broke: TMUS −9.2% week (−13.3% Fri), T −7.7%, VZ −7.9% on SpaceX Grain 800 MHz spectrum fear; towers (CCI/AMT) took the other side.
• How to stop revenge trading in five steps: Bill’s brief (From Profits Run, LLC)

WHAT BROKE

The week’s break was the carrier basket, not the index print. On Friday Oct 9, SpaceX’s roughly $8 billion Grain purchase of 800 MHz spectrum re-priced wireless, and Friday’s official close kept the loss. TMUS finished at 148.58, down 9.2% from the prior Friday’s 163.64 and down 13.3% on Friday. T finished at 22.18, down 7.7% on the week and 9.8% on Friday. VZ finished at 41.65, down 7.9% on the week and 8.7% on Friday. Towers, CCI and AMT, took the other side of that print.

SPY’s week was soft green: 778.57, up 1.16% from 769.64 on Oct 2. QQQ added 0.23%. DIA added 0.98%. IWM finished red, down 0.92% from 281.52. A green SPY week hid the carrier sell.

THE LESSON

A soft green SPY week is not a clean bill of health. The names that broke (the carriers) told the real story under the index print.

ONE TO WATCH MONDAY

JPM · Monday Oct 12 is an equity open: Columbus Day shifts Fed statistical releases to Tuesday, and stocks trade. The quiet Monday is positioning into Tuesday Oct 13, when JPM reports Q3 around 7:00 AM ET and hosts the call at 8:30 AM ET. It is the first mega-bank print of bank week. Tell: JPM versus Friday’s close, and XLF after the 7:00 AM print. A wireless bounce check (TMUS, T, and VZ versus CCI and AMT at Monday’s open) is color only, not the dated watch.

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Signal over noise. Saturday evening What Broke read. Next cash Monday Oct 12.