Burry is betting against AI. He's half right

MARKET SIGNAL REPORT
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WED OCT 21 RECAP · OFFICIAL CLOSE · SPY +0.53% QQQ +1.05% DIA +0.64% IWM +0.25%

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The people who built AI are selling
as fast as they legally can.
Jensen Huang has logged 42 straight sell transactions, Peter Thiel is out of Nvidia, and Michael Burry is betting against AI stocks. Alexander Green says they're half right, and shows where he thinks the bigger AI profits come from next.

Watch Alexander Green's Briefing

KEY TAKES

Tech led a third straight S&P gain (QQQ +1.05%) as SpaceX's AI numbers lifted chips: SOXX +2.07%, NVDA +2.54%.
After the bell, Meta rose on its guide and Lam Research slid on a small beat.
SpaceX now owns xAI. A 20-year trader names three small companies he believes Elon is targeting next (From Millionaire Publishing)

THE CLOSE

SpaceX's income statement carried the AI trade. Its super intelligence unit booked $7.56B in revenue, up 830% from a year ago, and that lifted chips and Dell (+5.3%). Abbott (−1.9%) cut its outlook. SPY closed 773.09 (+0.53%), QQQ 725.20 (+1.05%), DIA 527.70 (+0.64%), IWM 276.48 (+0.25%).

Did the 3 PM read hold? So far. Tesla didn't give back its 3.4%; it traded near its $386.47 close after hours.

AFTER THE BELL

META guided Q4 revenue to $73B-$76B vs FactSet $73.65B and narrowed 2026 capex to $135B-$145B. It traded near $721 after hours vs a $697.52 close.

TSLA earned $0.48 a share vs $0.45 expected; revenue was in line at $28.05B and down from a year ago. Cash flow stayed positive. It traded near $386 after hours.

LRCX beat by a hair ($2.20 vs $2.18 EPS) and guided in line. After a 2% chip rally, that wasn't enough: near $246.50 after hours vs a $260.81 close.

TOMORROW'S SETUP

8:30 AM ET. Jobless claims, forecast 200K vs 199K prior. A jump would reset the rate story.

Before the open. Lockheed Martin, Procter & Gamble, Honeywell, Union Pacific and American Airlines report: the economy outside tech.

10:00 AM ET. Conference Board leading index for September, forecast −0.1%.

After the close. Bloom Energy and Western Digital report: AI power and AI storage, same night.

ONE TO WATCH TOMORROW

BE closed $238.53 (+7.1%) and reports Thursday after the close. It is still 36% below its June record (Motley Fool), and BMO raised its target to $260 from $227 on Wednesday. The tell: after a 7% run into the print, it needs the guide, not just the quarter. Lam showed tonight what a priced-in beat looks like.

SHH. THIS IS A CLUB.

You get the recap because you open and click. Go quiet and we give your chair away. See you tomorrow.

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Signal over noise. Evening recap of Wednesday's official close. Thursday starts with jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET and Lockheed, P&G and Honeywell before the open.

Burry is betting against AI. He's half right

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